Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-16 177.208713 216.001277 264.515767 330.897046 421.405842 5.436975e+02 7.273387e+02
2025-02-23 132.322556 176.173407 238.328389 336.977806 498.283740 7.699814e+02 1.311710e+03
2025-03-02 105.032691 147.753667 213.376972 328.615264 543.854892 9.764320e+02 2.092436e+03
2025-03-09 87.563968 128.187594 194.409365 320.126017 581.782569 1.195716e+03 3.237710e+03
2025-03-16 74.582493 112.474416 177.084911 307.451591 603.882213 1.399929e+03 4.793958e+03
2025-03-23 70.373659 110.092417 181.749871 338.220996 739.412252 2.051780e+03 1.058402e+04
2025-03-30 63.946758 102.596869 175.131637 342.805229 813.580079 2.623550e+03 2.047643e+04
2025-04-06 59.605920 98.055544 173.126749 357.156928 926.800610 3.568552e+03 5.128756e+04
2025-04-13 54.203234 90.684216 163.857772 350.728023 971.462492 4.302893e+03 1.152839e+05
2025-04-20 52.632414 90.392205 169.405147 384.920275 1190.804402 6.847860e+03 1.151855e+06
2025-04-27 50.759226 89.188216 172.664905 414.400921 1426.823581 1.092988e+04 NaN
2025-05-04 48.605100 87.082530 173.404758 436.986647 1663.535466 1.732397e+04 NaN
2025-05-11 46.030469 83.934237 171.512267 452.513200 1902.192336 2.808692e+04 NaN
2025-05-18 43.467864 80.497738 168.323572 463.071145 2139.883615 4.661184e+04 NaN
2025-05-25 40.266342 75.264597 159.594157 450.530303 2211.961380 6.409457e+04 NaN
2025-06-01 37.427197 70.537705 151.453244 437.667960 2273.625762 8.880383e+04 NaN
2025-06-08 34.682351 65.745808 142.420745 418.514739 2265.894995 1.128452e+05 NaN
2025-06-15 34.398051 66.570357 148.878667 465.214838 2952.318831 4.984455e+05 NaN
2025-06-22 32.867532 64.293889 146.214062 472.227315 3280.200257 1.591166e+06 NaN
2025-06-29 31.864150 63.167654 146.705185 494.270311 3875.942028 2.590645e+07 NaN
2025-07-06 30.134658 60.104504 140.951350 484.379364 4029.683822 9.514404e+08 NaN
2025-07-13 29.975431 60.891340 147.059249 537.290079 5422.594595 NaN NaN
2025-07-20 29.575310 61.027254 151.201827 583.499533 7102.642995 NaN NaN